Peter Merrill, deputy news editor
In the weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the western world has placed some of the most restrictive sanctions in history on the invading country. Sanctions are penalties imposed on countries who do not abide by international law. These sanctions limit the export of major Russian products like oil, wheat and weapons. Importantly, Russian banks have been crippled after being kicked off of Swift, the program that enables global economic transactions. Individual sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian oligarchs have also been implemented as much as possible, but due to the nebulous nature of the Russian president’s wealth, this has proved difficult.
According to John Hickman, professor of international affairs, Russia has been the subject of milder economic limitations since the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
“These aren’t sudden sanctions,” Hickman said. “The Russians have kind of been learning all along how to come up with substitutes. The other part of it is that because Russia exports a lot of raw materials, the world depends on them. It’s not like you can do without oil and gas easily.”
Before the sanctions, the United States imported very little oil from Russia, but other European countries like Germany that relied on Russian oil are having to find alternatives. Kelsey Rice, assistant professor of history, said that these alternatives might be found in alternate energy and Caspian gas.
“However, both [Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan] are in the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Russian economic union,” Rice said. “So they are both interested in circumventing Russia and enriching themselves with their gas, but they also take care to not rub Russia the wrong way.”
Russia is no stranger to wars of attrition, so according to Hickman, they are willing to make sacrifices and endure hardship to ensure victory while Europe struggles to supply itself with gas.
“It’s important to note that war is the most intensely competitive thing that humans do,” Hickman said. “And because it’s so intensely competitive, it forces people and governments to be creative. People get really creative about technology in war. I mean World War II gave us both the American and Soviet rocket programs.”
Rice said that since these are the most severe sanctions in history, they will be a test for how effective sanctions are.
“When you look at previous sanctions in history, on Iran and Cuba, there is a legitimate question to ask about how effective sanctions are,” said Rice. “Cuba has been sanctioned since the 60s, since the Cuban revolution, and the government in Cuba hasn’t changed. The sanctions have done nothing to limit Cuba’s government’s development.”
Rice said that while some Russian oligarchs like Roman Abramovich, owner of the Chelsea Football Club, have been affected enough to stand in opposition to Putin’s war, the sanctions primarily affect the middle class that emerged in Russia after Putin gained power.
“The fact of sanctions like this is that people who had no choice in whether or not Russia invaded Ukraine will die because the things that come with these sanctions, and something we’ve seen in Iran throughout the entire history of sanctions is that people cannot get basic medical necessities,” Rice said. “I don’t support the sanctions that we’ve had on Iran and Cuba. they don’t work so all they are is punishment. I think what we did with Russia makes a bit more sense, they had just invaded a sovereign nation.”
Matthew Stanard, professor of history, said that the United States is considering implementing secondary sanctions, which would level sanctions against other countries who conduct business with Russia. According to Stanard, if secondary sanctions are pushed too far, they could turn the affected countries away from the United States and its allies. In the past, countries like Iran have circumvented sanctions by exporting to another country that is not under sanctions.
“These countries will put oil in a boat that’s registered not to Iran but registered to the Maldives or to Tuvalu or some third country,” Stanard said. “Then they just ply the waters, and they end up going to some port and unloading the oil and they make the money. So, the secondary sanctions would try to keep other countries for acting as conduits for Russian trade.”
In the wake of these sanctions, Russia’s currency, the ruble, has seen a steep decline in value.
“If people are investing in your country, it makes your currency more valuable,” Stanard said. “You’re paying the workers in rubles, you’re buying the supplies in rubles, equipment, manufacturing, whatever it is, you’re buying it in rubles, which means rubles are in demand.”
When there are fewer things that can be bought with the ruble, the currency has less use so it becomes less valuable when compared to other international currencies like the dollar. While this affects Russian oligarchs, it also severely damages the Russian middle and lower classes bottom line.
There is some precedent for sanctions leading to war, and with recent comments from Putin suggesting that he views economic measures taken against Russia as acts of war. Although the breakout of nuclear war is not likely, the option has not been taken off the table.
“In the case of World War II, it was trade sanctions against Japan that ultimately caused the Japanese government to decide that it had to make war against the United States and the other western colonial powers,” Hickman said.
Whether the sanctions against Russia will lead to them withdrawing from Ukraine remains undetermined, but the economic impact of these measures both inside and outside of Russia have been dramatic.